一季度政治局会议解读：对房地产行业的支持或再升级

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on April 30, 2024, indicated that the economy is recovering but still faces significant challenges, reducing the likelihood of a sudden withdrawal of policy stimulus[3] - The annual GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 4.9% amid ongoing policy support for the real estate sector[3] Real Estate Policy - The meeting highlighted the need for more specific measures to digest existing housing stock and optimize new housing supply, indicating potential upgrades in support for the real estate industry[3] - The government reiterated the importance of localized policies and responsibilities among local governments, real estate companies, and financial institutions to ensure housing delivery and protect buyers' rights[3] Investment and Consumption - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds, with over 30 trillion yuan in special bonds and 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term treasury bonds planned for issuance in the second to fourth quarters[3] - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs is estimated to boost economic growth by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points this year[5] Monetary Policy - The meeting emphasized the continuation of a prudent monetary policy, with flexible use of interest rates and reserve requirements to support the real economy and reduce financing costs[5] - Future monetary policy direction may become more cautious, depending on economic recovery and target achievement[5] Risks - Key risks include the real estate sector's inability to stabilize, a sharp decline in exports, and geopolitical uncertainties[6]