策略深度：红利策略的机会与风险

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential and risks associated with dividend strategies, highlighting the importance of valuation improvement and the potential for increased dividend payout ratios in relevant sectors [3][47]. - The absolute return of dividend strategies is primarily driven by the performance of high-dividend sectors, particularly in energy and materials, which have significantly contributed to the overall returns [3][67]. - The report identifies that the long-term absolute return of dividend strategies is contingent upon the price index's ability to maintain or partially recover from declines, which is crucial for sustaining dividend and reinvestment returns [3][59]. Group 1: Absolute Return Opportunities and Risks - The composition of absolute returns in dividend strategies is analyzed, indicating that the capital gains component is closely linked to the price index's performance, which must not decline significantly for the strategy to yield positive returns [3][51]. - The report breaks down the returns of the CSI Dividend Index, showing that while beta contributes to relative returns, it has not translated into absolute returns, with the current cycle's gains largely attributed to high-dividend sectors [3][67]. - The essence of achieving absolute returns lies in the relationship between price index declines and the dividend and reinvestment returns, where a smaller decline in the price index compared to the dividend yield is favorable [3][59]. Group 2: Valuation Improvement Drivers - The report attributes the valuation improvement in dividend strategies to significant events such as the supply-side reforms in 2016 and the dual carbon transition in 2021, which have led to a more rigid supply in traditional energy sectors [3][72]. - The analysis indicates that the stability of earnings and dividends in these sectors has enhanced investor confidence, thereby allowing for valuation increases [3][72]. - The report suggests that the recent regulatory changes, particularly the "National Nine Articles," are expected to enhance the dividend payout culture among listed companies, potentially leading to better returns for dividend strategies [3][85]. Group 3: Relative Return Opportunities and Risks - The report discusses the comparative effects on relative returns, noting that growth companies typically have lower dividend payout ratios due to reinvestment strategies, which have underperformed compared to high-dividend companies since 2021 [3][78]. - It highlights that the relative performance of dividend strategies is influenced by the timing of valuation recovery, with potential for returns to decline if the recovery has already occurred [3][79]. - The report concludes that sectors with potential for dividend payout ratio increases still present significant opportunities for absolute returns, particularly in the context of ongoing supply-side adjustments [3][85].