Guolian Securities·2024-05-05 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is "Buy" with a target price of 29.92 CNY [3][10]. Core Views - CNOOC's oil and gas production growth in Q1 exceeded the annual target, with a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [10]. - The company has successfully launched new projects and increased capital expenditure by 17.3% year-on-year [11]. - CNOOC's cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives have led to a continuous enhancement in value creation capabilities [10]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, CNOOC achieved revenue of 1114.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit of 397.2 billion CNY, up 23.7% year-on-year [10]. - The average realized price for oil liquids increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while natural gas prices decreased by 7.7% [11]. - The company reported a sales gross margin of 53.4%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 35.6% [11]. Production and Capital Expenditure - CNOOC's total oil and gas production in Q1 2024 was 180.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, surpassing the annual target of 700-720 million barrels [10]. - Capital expenditure for Q1 2024 was 290.1 billion CNY, with exploration spending slightly decreasing by 1.4% year-on-year [11]. - The company successfully brought new oil field projects into production, contributing to a peak production rate of 30,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day [11]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 4450.00 billion CNY, 4580.54 billion CNY, and 4658.63 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.81%, 2.93%, and 1.70% respectively [10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1419.35 billion CNY, 1496.53 billion CNY, and 1568.10 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 2.98 CNY, 3.15 CNY, and 3.30 CNY [10].