MTR CORPORATION(HK:00066)2024-05-06 04:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for MTR Corporation has been downgraded to NEUTRAL [2][3]. Core Insights - MTR Corporation's total revenue for FY23 increased by 19% year-on-year, while attributable profit to major shareholders decreased by 21%. Core profit, which includes property development but excludes fair value changes, fell by 40% year-on-year. The final dividend was maintained at HK$0.89, resulting in a full-year dividend of HK$1.31, which corresponds to a 5% yield based on the last closing price. The current stock price is believed to reflect potential future profit growth, leading to the revision of the target price to HK$28.60 and the downgrade to NEUTRAL [3][8]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue from Hong Kong transport operations rose significantly by 50% to HK$20.13 billion, while revenue from station commercial businesses increased by 66% to HK$5.12 billion. Revenue from property rental and management businesses in Hong Kong grew by 6% to HK$5.08 billion. However, revenue from Mainland China and international railway operations remained stable at HK$25.96 billion [6][7]. - The overall market share of MTR in the Hong Kong public transport market increased from 48% to 50% in FY23, with local railway passenger volume rising by 19% to 1.58 billion trips [3][6]. Future Capital Expenditure and Leverage - MTR Corporation anticipates significant capital expenditures in the coming years, with projected capital expenditures of HK$26.1 billion, HK$31.5 billion, and HK$30.3 billion for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively. This is expected to increase the company's leverage, with the net debt-to-equity ratio rising by 3 percentage points to 26.5% in FY23 [3][5][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 4-5% annually from FY24 to FY26, while core net profit is projected to increase by 22%, 46%, and 2% in the same period. The updated NAV per share is estimated at HK$40.80, with a target price of HK$28.60 reflecting a 30% discount due to anticipated increases in leverage [3][4][6].