Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [1][3]. Core Views - The new business value growth exceeded expectations, and profitability is expected to rebound in the future [1]. - The company experienced a significant decline in profit, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.6% in Q1 2024, which is higher than the industry average [1]. - The premium structure has significantly improved, with a notable increase in the proportion of ten-year and above premium payments [1]. - The total investment return rate decreased year-on-year, while the comprehensive investment return rate increased by 1 percentage point [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 71,547 million, a year-on-year decrease of 33.8%, with a recovery expected in 2024 with an 8.7% growth [2]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 8,712 million, down 59.5% year-on-year, but expected to rise by 15.2% in 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be RMB 3.22, with a growth of 15.2% [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 4.4 times in 2024, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach RMB 1,525,141 million by the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of 8.7% [12]. Business Performance - The new business value for Q1 2024 increased by 51% year-on-year, outperforming peers, with significant growth in both bancassurance and individual insurance channels [1]. - The proportion of new single premium payments decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, but the ten-year and above premium payments surged by 83.9% [1]. - The company’s investment assets grew by 2.3% compared to the end of the previous year, but the investment income decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [1]. Market Outlook - The target price for the company is set at HKD 20.50, representing a potential upside of 35.6% from the current price [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in the real estate market and a potential recovery in the yield of 10-year government bonds [1].
新业务价值增速超预期，盈利增速后续有望回升，上调至买入