美国4月非农就业点评：就业放缓，但可能尚不足以支撑3季度降息

Employment Data - In April 2024, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 175,000, significantly below the expected 243,000 and marking the smallest gain in six months[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, higher than both the expected and previous value of 3.8%[1] - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.7%, consistent with expectations and the previous month[1] Wage Growth and Hours Worked - The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings fell to 3.9%, below the expected 4.0% and the previous value of 4.1%[2] - Month-on-month average hourly earnings growth decreased to 0.2%, lower than the expected and previous rate of 0.3%[2] - Average weekly hours worked increased to 34.3, slightly below the expected and previous value of 34.4[1] Market Implications - The slowdown in employment data has eased market concerns about stagflation, with wage growth and hours worked declining[2] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the first anticipated cut moving from November to September, and the overall expectation rising from 1.5 to 2 cuts for the year[15] - Despite the employment slowdown, it may not be sufficient to support a rate cut in Q3 2024, and caution is advised regarding the timing of potential cuts[5] Sector Contributions - Job gains in April were primarily driven by healthcare (+56,000), social assistance (+31,000), and transportation and warehousing (+22,000), while government and leisure sectors saw significant declines[14]