全球流动性风向标系列（十一）：5月美联储FOMC会议点评-降息概率进一步下降，但风险资产仍有机会

Group 1 - The probability of no interest rate cuts in 2024 has increased further, with the market pricing in less than 1.5 cuts for the entire year, and the first cut expected in November [4][22][64] - Despite a slowdown in the US economy, private sector demand remains strong, supporting consumption and investment, with expectations of resilience in the economy during the second half of the year [3][15][47] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate hikes indicates that the negative impact on risk assets has largely subsided, allowing for potential valuation recovery [26][37][56] Group 2 - The recent rebound in Hong Kong stocks is attributed to improving macroeconomic indicators in China and supportive policy measures, with expectations for this rebound to continue for several months [7][48] - The manufacturing cycle is expected to bottom out and rebound, driven by inventory replenishment, which could positively influence global economic cycles [67] - The market's adjustment of interest rate cut expectations has led to a more neutral pricing environment, reducing the likelihood of further pressure on risk assets [72][79]