月度宏观洞察：探究美联储的降息逻辑变化

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance on Interest Rates - In April, the Federal Reserve shifted from a dovish to a hawkish stance regarding interest rate cuts, indicating no immediate urgency for rate reductions due to strong economic conditions[1] - The Fed's previous dovish signals included a focus on balancing inflation and growth, and the potential for job growth to coexist with declining inflation[1] - The Fed's current position is influenced by persistently high inflation rates and robust domestic demand reflected in Q1 GDP data[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Projections - The first quarter's GDP growth showed resilience, with key indicators like retail sales and industrial production exceeding market expectations[7] - Non-farm payrolls in April fell to 175,000, below the market expectation of 240,000, indicating a potential softening in the labor market[31] - The core CPI inflation rate has consistently exceeded expectations, with a March reading showing a rebound, raising concerns about the Fed's confidence in further inflation declines[6] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Scenarios - The Fed is expected to consider rate cuts starting in Q3, with a probability of 60% for a reduction of 50-75 basis points if economic momentum weakens significantly[36] - If labor market data continues to decline unexpectedly, rate cuts could begin as early as July[36] - There remains a 30% chance that rate cuts could be delayed until Q4, and a 10% possibility that no cuts will occur throughout the year[36]