2024-05-07 03:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Qingdao Beer [4][6][15]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer faced challenges in sales and revenue compared to peers, with a 7.6% year-on-year decline in sales volume in Q1 2024, while the average selling price increased by 2.6%, indicating a slowdown in product structure improvement [4][10]. - The company's gross margin improved due to a 1.0% decrease in unit cost and a 12% reduction in sales expenses, leading to a 10% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [4][10]. - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of product structure upgrades and cost reduction trends in 2024, given the weak performance in mid-to-high-end products [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 34,756 million, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 5,006 million, a 17.3% increase [9][11]. - The report adjusts the target price for Qingdao Beer A-shares to RMB 86.2 and H-shares to HKD 65.1, based on a valuation of 15x and 10x EV/EBITDA for 2024, respectively [4][6][15]. - Key financial metrics include a projected PE ratio of 23.7 for A-shares and 14.8 for H-shares in 2024 [9][11].