【NIFD季报】探寻新质生产力：人工智能——2024Q1中国宏观金融报告

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The current domestic economic recovery is characterized by a "strong supply and weak demand" situation, with supply-side recovery but demand facing dual pressures from exports and real estate, leading to deflation and credit tightening [3][5] - The government has prioritized the development of "new quality productivity" and proposed the "AI+" initiative, indicating a significant focus on artificial intelligence's impact on the macroeconomy [3][11] - The misallocation of financial resources is a major contradiction in current economic development, with excessive investment directed towards low-efficiency sectors like finance, real estate, and construction [3][17] Recent Situation: Why is the Perceived Temperature Low? - The PMI for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors has shown recovery, but demand remains weak, with exports declining by 11.38% year-on-year in March [5][6] - Real estate investment and sales continue to shrink, indicating a deep adjustment period for the industry [5][7] - Consumer willingness to spend is low, as reflected in the negative consumer sentiment index since January 2022 [5][7] Exploring New Quality Productivity: Artificial Intelligence - The report highlights the dual nature of AI's impact on the economy, where it can either replace labor or complement it, affecting productivity and income distribution [11][14] - AI's development has been significant, with the U.S. and China dominating the global unicorn market, particularly in fintech and AI sectors [11][12] - The report discusses the potential for AI to enhance total factor productivity but also warns of its possible negative effects on income inequality and industry concentration [14][15] Financial Resource Misallocation - Financial resources are disproportionately allocated, with only 19.41% of financing directed to the industrial sector, which contributes 34.64% to GDP [17][19] - The report identifies three sectors facing investment shortages: consumer services, public services, and producer services, which are crucial for driving domestic demand and economic quality [21][22] - The shift in investment focus towards consumer services, public services, and producer services is expected to inject new momentum into high-quality economic development [21][22]