银行业2023年报&2024年一季报综述：行业业绩有望筑底

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [2][52] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the banking industry is expected to stabilize, with a potential bottoming out of earnings in 2024 [2][37] - The net interest margin continues to decline, impacting revenue growth, but the negative effects may lessen if the LPR does not decrease significantly in the future [11][14] - The asset quality remains stable, with a low non-performing loan ratio of approximately 1.25% as of the end of Q1 2024 [19][27] Summary by Sections Overall Review - In 2023, the total operating income of 42 listed banks decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, and in Q1 2024, it fell by 1.7% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks grew by 1.4% in 2023 but declined by 0.6% in Q1 2024 [7] Driving Factors - The net interest margin is under pressure due to the decline in LPR and competitive loan rates, leading to a decrease in revenue and profit growth [11][14] - Asset impairment losses have a diminishing positive contribution to net profit growth, with the overall asset impairment losses decreasing but at a slowing rate [11][27] - The growth rate of interest-earning assets has slowed down due to high base effects and balanced asset allocation [11][32] Industry Outlook - The performance for the year is expected to be close to that of Q1, with key drivers indicating a potential stabilization in earnings [37] - The non-performing loan generation rate is expected to remain stable as the macroeconomic environment improves [37] Sub-sector Performance - Different types of banks show similar trends in key driving factors, with varying pressures on provisioning for non-performing loans [38][45] - The asset quality and provisioning levels are the primary reasons for differences in net profit growth among individual banks [49] Investment Recommendations - The banking sector is currently undervalued, and potential downside risks are minimal, suggesting a favorable environment for investment [52] - Specific stock recommendations include招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) and 宁波银行 (Ningbo Bank) for their strong long-term fundamentals [53]