中国石油石化行业：再提房地产“去库存”，关注化工品顺周期投资机会

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies in the petroleum and petrochemical sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, Hengli Petrochemical, and others [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Core Viewpoints - Since 2024, the spreads of chemicals such as butadiene, pure benzene, and MTBE have continued to widen, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. - The propylene-naphtha spread is currently at $136/ton, which is at the 2.70th percentile since January 2020, suggesting a 66.76% potential expansion space from the median of $227/ton [14]. - The ethylene-naphtha spread is at $191/ton, at the 20.60th percentile since January 2020, with a 20.60% potential expansion space from the median of $231/ton [14]. - The emphasis on "clearing inventory" in political meetings is expected to improve downstream demand, while recent maintenance in chemical plants has affected supply, creating investment opportunities in related sub-sectors [14]. Summary by Company CNOOC - CNOOC reported a net profit of 39.719 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, with stable oil and gas production growth targets set for 2024-2026 [3]. - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% from 2022 to 2024, with an expected annual dividend of at least 0.70 HKD per share [3]. PetroChina - PetroChina achieved a record net profit of 161.144 billion yuan in 2023 despite a 17% decline in oil prices [4]. - The company distributed a cash dividend of 0.44 yuan per share in 2023, with a payout ratio of 50% [4]. CNOOC Services - CNOOC Services anticipates global upstream exploration and development capital expenditures exceeding $60 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [5]. - The company reported a revenue of 10.148 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a 20% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 636 million yuan, up 57.3% [5]. Satellite Petrochemical - Satellite Petrochemical has seen significant profit improvements since 2023, driven by its low-cost and low-emission processes [6]. - The company has several projects under construction that will provide future growth momentum [6]. Hengli Petrochemical - Hengli Petrochemical reported a net profit of 6.905 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 197.83% [7]. - The company is accelerating its new materials layout with several projects expected to start production in the first half of 2024 [7]. Tongkun Co. - Tongkun Co. has expanded its polyester production capacity, with a focus on improving upstream refining layout [8]. - The company has a production capacity of 10.2 million tons of PTA and plans to initiate an integrated refining project in Indonesia [8]. Xin'ao Co. - Xin'ao Co. is actively expanding its natural gas business, with a processing capacity of 7.5 million tons per year at its Zhoushan receiving station [10]. - The company is expected to increase its processing capacity to over 10 million tons per year by 2025 [10].