24Q1业绩环比改善，持续强化产业链布局

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guangxin Co., Ltd. (603599) is "Outperform" [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.868 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.439 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year. The gross margin was 37.84%, a decline of 3.15 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - In Q4 2023, the company experienced a significant revenue drop of 68% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 75% year-on-year. The performance was below expectations [4]. - The company’s Q1 2024 results showed a revenue of 1.215 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year but up 57% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 225 million yuan, down 57% year-on-year but up 95% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a recovery trend [4]. - The agricultural chemical market remains under pressure due to low product prices, with limited short-term upside potential. The company’s main pesticide raw material sales volume decreased by 18% year-on-year in 2023 [4]. - The company is expanding its industrial chain by integrating upstream and downstream operations, which is expected to create new profit growth points [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 2023 total revenue was 5.868 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -35.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.439 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -37.9% [17]. - Q1 2024 revenue was 1.215 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year but up 57% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit was 225 million yuan, down 57% year-on-year but up 95% quarter-on-quarter [17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is one of the largest producers of pesticide raw materials and fine chemical intermediates in China, leveraging its integrated supply chain to enhance profitability [4]. - New projects, such as the 300,000-ton ion membrane caustic soda project, are expected to improve raw material supply and reduce costs [4]. Future Outlook - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 and 2025 has been revised down to 1.172 billion yuan and 1.427 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2026 at 1.687 billion yuan [4]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 11, 9, and 8 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, compared to an average PE of 13 times for comparable companies [4].