A股2023年年报及2024年一季报分析：把握盈利修复窗口

Core Insights - The current profit cycle for the entire A-share non-financial sector is expected to experience a weak recovery from the confirmed low point in Q2 2023, with a potential duration of 1-3 quarters for recovery to positive growth [1]. - The overall revenue growth rates for the entire A-share and non-financial sectors in 2023 and Q1 2024 show a decline compared to previous quarters, indicating a challenging economic environment [6][7]. - The net profit margin for the entire A-share non-financial sector is stabilizing at a low level, while asset turnover and debt ratios continue to decline, impacting overall return on equity (ROE) [18][19]. Revenue and Profit Growth Overview - The cumulative revenue growth rates for the entire A-share and non-financial sectors in 2023 were 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively, with a decline in growth rates observed in Q1 2024 [6]. - The cumulative net profit growth rates for the entire A-share and non-financial sectors in 2023 were -0.5% and -1.8%, respectively, with a further decline expected in Q1 2024 [6][7]. - The oil and petrochemical industry showed better performance in Q1 2024, but excluding this sector, the overall revenue growth for the non-financial sector turned negative [6]. Industry Performance and Trends - The proportion of upstream resource industries in the entire A-share non-financial sector has decreased from 28.8% in Q1 2023 to 24.3% in Q1 2024, primarily due to base effects [9]. - The ROE for the entire A-share non-financial sector was 7.6% in Q4 2023, showing slight recovery, but dropped to 7.3% in Q1 2024, indicating ongoing challenges [18]. - The sales net profit margin for the entire A-share non-financial sector was 4.3% in Q1 2024, showing signs of stabilization compared to previous quarters [18]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The overall cash flow quality for the entire A-share non-financial sector weakened in Q1 2024, with net cash flow as a percentage of revenue at -2.3% [22]. - The asset turnover ratio for the entire A-share non-financial sector declined, indicating weaker revenue elasticity compared to asset growth [18]. - The financial health of companies in the sector is under pressure, with a continued decline in debt ratios and asset turnover, impacting overall profitability [18][19].