2024-05-08 11:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile with a target price of HKD 12.5, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the current price of HKD 9.9 [3][4][5]. Core Insights - Geely's sales in April increased by 35% year-on-year, reaching 153,000 units, with a cumulative sales growth of 46.9% for the first four months of 2024 [2][4]. - The company is in a rapid transformation phase, with a continuous expansion of its new energy vehicle lineup and improving profitability [3][4]. - Geely's export volume in April was 38,000 units, marking a 66.3% year-on-year increase, contributing to 24.9% of total sales [2][4]. Sales Performance - In April, Geely brand sold 118,000 units, while Zeekr and Lynk & Co sold 16,000 and 19,000 units respectively, with Zeekr showing a remarkable growth of 110.6% year-on-year [2][4]. - The upcoming new models, including Lynk & Co 07 and Galaxy E5, are expected to generate significant market interest, with pre-orders for Lynk & Co 07 exceeding 10,000 units shortly after its announcement [2][4]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 179.2 billion in 2023 to HKD 216.4 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 21% [4][5]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from HKD 5.3 billion in 2023 to HKD 8.3 billion in 2024, representing a growth rate of 57% [4][5]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 15.4% in 2024, while the net profit margin is expected to rise from 3.0% to 3.8% [4][5]. Market Position - Geely is actively pursuing a global strategy, with a significant portion of its sales coming from exports, indicating a strong international presence [2][4]. - The upcoming listing of Zeekr on the NYSE is anticipated to enhance its financial capabilities and support further growth [2][4].