Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (SH:601816)2024-05-09 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway [3][15]. Core Views - In 2023, the company recorded a revenue of Rmb40.683 billion, a significant increase of 110.40% year-on-year, and a net profit of Rmb11.546 billion, marking a turnaround from losses in 2022. In Q1 2024, revenue reached Rmb10.106 billion, up 13.06% year-on-year, with a net profit of Rmb2.963 billion, an increase of 33.11% [6][7][15]. - The company is expected to benefit from the marketization of ticket prices and the continuous improvement of the high-speed rail network, which will contribute to revenue growth. The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is Rmb0.27, Rmb0.29, and Rmb0.30 respectively, with a target price of Rmb5.87 based on a 22x PE ratio for 2024E [7][15]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a gross margin of 45.8%, which is expected to improve to 47.6% in 2024 and stabilize at 48.2% in the following years. The net profit margin for 2023 was 28.4% [6][14]. - The company plans to distribute 50% of its profits as dividends over the next three years, provided there are no significant investment plans or cash expenditures [7][14]. - The report highlights a significant increase in passenger volume, with the company transporting 53.25 million passengers in 2023, a growth of 209.1% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average [7][15]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for 2024 is Rmb44.886 billion, with a growth rate of 10.33%, followed by Rmb48.665 billion in 2025 and Rmb50.984 billion in 2026 [10][14]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is Rmb13.099 billion, with expected growth rates of 13% in 2024, 8% in 2025, and 4% in 2026 [10][14].