策略深度报告：“广义次新成长股”筛选系统构建

Core Insights - The report focuses on "broadly defined new growth stocks" within long-term growth industries such as electronics, communications, computers, media, machinery, defense, automotive, power equipment, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, light industry, and social services [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting high-quality new growth stocks, as only about 10% of stocks listed since 2010 have achieved returns exceeding 500% [17] - The lifecycle of "broadly defined new growth stocks" is categorized into three stages: IPO initial stage, consolidation stage, and trend verification stage [45][49] Industry and Company Analysis - The report identifies industries with a five-year net profit growth rate exceeding 100%, primarily in TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing, as well as essential consumer sectors like food and pharmaceuticals [3][25] - The DCF three-stage discount model is utilized to evaluate the long-term growth potential of companies, focusing on those with high compound growth rates in the second stage and stable growth in the third stage [2][25] - The report outlines four main patterns of "broadly defined new growth stocks": "stair-step pattern," "late bloomer pattern," "ephemeral pattern," and "weak pattern," each with distinct characteristics and investment implications [47][62] Investment Strategy - A screening system for "broadly defined new growth stocks" is proposed, incorporating market patterns and fundamental indicators to identify stocks with high growth potential [57][59] - The report suggests focusing on two main themes for investment: "AI+" and "manufacturing upgrades," as well as emerging consumer trends driven by changing consumption patterns [105][124] - Historical backtesting of the screening system indicates that stocks meeting the criteria have a higher probability of achieving significant returns compared to the overall market performance of new growth stocks [96][99]