环球市场脉搏（2024年4月）：市场焦点–“四月是残酷的月份”，五月也可能是

Core Insights - The report indicates that major tech companies are expected to face negative sentiment as they prepare to release earnings, with investors interpreting the lack of preliminary forecasts as a sell signal [1] - Geopolitical risks have escalated, particularly in the Middle East, leading to increased market volatility, with the VIX index reaching a six-month high [1] - The report suggests that investors should take profits in the U.S. stock market and wait for buying opportunities, particularly in precious metals, as adjustments are expected to continue into April and May [2] Commodity Performance - Precious metals have seen significant gains over the past 30 days, with silver up 12.4% and gold up 9.1%, driven by geopolitical tensions [3] - Oil prices have also strengthened, with Brent crude increasing by 4.9% and WTI by 4.5% [3] - Industrial metals are rebounding due to demand recovery, with aluminum up 9.7% and copper up 4.2% [3] Bond Market - The report notes a divergence in 10-year government bond yields, with most developed markets experiencing increases, while yields in Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and China have decreased [3] Stock Market Analysis - U.S. stock valuations have reverted to historical averages after being approximately one standard deviation above [3] - The report highlights that sectors such as energy and communication services have led the market, both up 6.0%, while utilities have increased by 2.0% [3] - The report indicates that stocks remain near their highest levels relative to cash since 2000 [3] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is shifting from bullish to bearish, with a decrease in bullish investors from 52% to 43% over the past month [14] - The put-call ratio has increased from 0.62 to 0.67, indicating a growing bearish sentiment [14] - The report suggests that after recent market corrections, there may be signs of recovery in the U.S. stock market in the coming months [14] Economic Outlook - The report discusses the impact of strong U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which have diminished hopes for early interest rate cuts [12] - Seasonal factors related to the upcoming U.S. elections are expected to increase investor anxiety, with historical trends indicating poorer performance for the S&P 500 in election years [13]