Guolian Securities·2024-05-09 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 was 4.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 24% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.54 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year [1]. - The asset management business remains a key revenue pillar, contributing significantly to the company's income despite facing short-term pressure due to changes in public fund fee rates [1][2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in performance as the equity market and new fund issuance improve, projecting revenue growth for 2024-2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2024 revenue was 4.95 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year; net profit was 1.54 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year; ROE was 1.16%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Brokerage business generated net commission income of 1.36 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, while asset management business generated 1.61 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year [1]. - Investment business revenue was 1.14 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year, with a financial asset total of 444.4 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The asset management business accounted for 34% of the company's main revenue, while brokerage accounted for 29%, together contributing over 60% of total revenue [1]. - The investment banking segment saw a 47% year-on-year increase in net commission income, totaling 150 million yuan [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 23.76 billion yuan, 24.07 billion yuan, and 25.32 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 7.01 billion yuan, 7.35 billion yuan, and 8.11 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report sets a target price of 21.88 yuan, based on a 1.2 times price-to-book ratio for 2023 [3].