Guolian Securities·2024-05-09 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.87 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a decrease of 38% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.24 billion yuan, down 45% year-on-year [2]. - The report indicates that the investment banking business is under pressure, and investment fluctuations have negatively impacted performance [2]. - The company is expected to recover as the equity market stabilizes, with a target price set at 45.05 yuan, reflecting a price-to-book ratio of 2 times for 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2024, the company's brokerage business net income was 830 million yuan, down 33% year-on-year and 18.2% quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 21.7% of the main securities revenue [3]. - The asset management business generated net income of 270 million yuan, a decrease of 18% year-on-year but an increase of 2% quarter-on-quarter, with a non-money market AUM of 67.5 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year [3]. - The investment banking segment achieved net income of 450 million yuan, down 25% year-on-year and 58% quarter-on-quarter, with a market share of 5% in IPO underwriting [3]. Investment Performance - The company's investment net income (including foreign exchange gains) was 2.34 billion yuan in Q1 2024, down 35% year-on-year but up 19% quarter-on-quarter, representing 61.1% of the main securities revenue [4]. - The annualized investment return rate for Q1 2024 was 2.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 21.9 billion, 22.4 billion, and 23.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.6%, +2.1%, and +3.8% [5]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 5.9 billion, 6.1 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4%, +3%, and +5.9% [5]. - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 1.22, 1.26, and 1.34 yuan per share [5].