大陆消费月报：3月数据不及预期

Consumption Overview - In March, the total retail sales amounted to 3.9 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% (compared to +5.5% in January-February) [23] - Online retail sales reached 1.2 trillion, down 6.3% year-on-year, with an online retail share of 29.6%, up 3.1 percentage points from January-February [23] Entertainment and Travel - Sports and entertainment consumption showed strong resilience, increasing by 19% year-on-year [5] - During the Qingming holiday, 5.189 million people crossed borders, a 69.6% increase compared to the same period last year [18] Durable Goods and Automotive Sales - Durable goods demand remains insufficient, with automotive retail showing negative growth due to significant discounts affecting sales [5] - In March, automotive sales increased by 9.9% year-on-year, despite the overall retail sales decline [5] Price Trends - March CPI increased by 0.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, while PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year [42] - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetables and fruits experiencing a month-on-month decrease of 4.2 and 4.4 percentage points, respectively [52] Market Performance - From March 18 to April 15, the consumer sector significantly underperformed the market, with declines in various sub-sectors: food and beverage down 3.7%, textile and apparel down 1.7%, and retail down 8% [35] - The overall retail growth rate over the past two years averaged 6.8%, indicating moderate growth despite recent slowdowns [60] Future Outlook - The upcoming national holidays in April to June are expected to sustain high travel demand, supporting related industries [70] - Companies with high earnings certainty and dividends are recommended for investment focus during the earnings season [78]