Guolian Securities·2024-05-09 08:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 6.64 CNY, maintaining the current price of 4.86 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 2024 revenue of 89.43 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.93 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.35% year-on-year [3]. - The decline in revenue growth is attributed to a significant drop in commission income, which fell by 18.21% year-on-year due to the "one-stop" policy affecting insurance agency income [3]. - The bank's loan balance reached 8.52 trillion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 11.80%, indicating a healthy credit issuance environment [3]. - The net interest margin for Q1 2024 was 1.92%, slightly narrowing compared to the previous year, primarily due to asset-side pressures [3]. - The bank's asset quality showed slight fluctuations, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.84% as of Q1 2024, indicating sufficient risk coverage capacity with a provision coverage ratio of 326.87% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 349.97 billion CNY, 368.09 billion CNY, and 394.86 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.18%, 5.18%, and 7.27% respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 87.52 billion CNY, 91.83 billion CNY, and 98.38 billion CNY, with growth rates of 1.45%, 4.93%, and 7.12% respectively [4]. - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.82 CNY, with a book value per share (BVPS) of 8.48 CNY [4].