Guolian Securities·2024-05-09 09:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 41.89 CNY [21]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, with adverse factors still needing to be digested [2]. - Credit growth is supported by corporate lending, but the net interest margin is under increasing pressure [2]. - The asset quality remains slightly volatile, primarily due to ongoing pressure from retail non-performing loans [3]. Financial Performance Summary - As of Q1 2024, the non-performing loan ratio, attention rate, and overdue rate for the company are 0.92%, 1.14%, and 1.31%, respectively, showing slight fluctuations compared to the end of 2023 [3]. - The company disposed of non-performing loans amounting to 15.288 billion CNY in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.89% [3]. - The company’s revenue for Q1 2024 was 86.417 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.65% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 38.077 billion CNY, down 1.96% year-on-year [8][19]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 344.095 billion CNY, 366.768 billion CNY, and 391.290 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.47%, 6.59%, and 6.69%, respectively [20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 155.167 billion CNY, 164.650 billion CNY, and 176.221 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 5.84%, 6.11%, and 7.03% [20]. - The company maintains a high provision coverage ratio of 436.82% as of Q1 2024, indicating sufficient risk compensation capacity [3].