海外泽布替尼收入带动1Q24业绩好于预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with target prices of $275 for US shares, HK$165 for Hong Kong shares, and RMB 175 for A-shares, indicating potential upside of 67% for US shares and 65% for Hong Kong shares [1][3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2024, driven by strong overseas sales of Zebutinib, with total revenue reaching $752 million, a year-over-year increase of 67.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 18.5% [1][5]. - Zebutinib's revenue in Q1 2024 was $489 million, reflecting a 131% year-over-year growth, with significant contributions from the US and European markets [1][5]. - The company is optimistic about Zebutinib's long-term potential, expecting it to surpass Ibrutinib as new patients gradually replace older ones [1][5]. Financial Performance - Q1 2024 product revenue was $747 million, up 82% year-over-year, with a net loss of $251 million, a decrease of 27.9% year-over-year [1][5]. - The adjusted Non-GAAP operating loss for Q1 2024 was $147 million, down 46.5% year-over-year [1][5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 83.3%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from Q1 2023 [1][5]. Research and Development Progress - The company is advancing its pipeline with a focus on BCL2 and BTK CDAC, with multiple clinical trials ongoing for Sonrotoclax and BGB-16673 [1][5]. - Sonrotoclax is currently in four registrational clinical trials, with data expected to be released at upcoming conferences [1][5]. - BGB-16673 has initiated studies for R/R MCL and R/R CLL, with plans to start a Phase III trial by the end of 2024 [1][5]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Zebutinib's sales in the US and Europe have shown remarkable growth, with the US market share increasing significantly [1][5]. - The company is exploring additional indications for Zebutinib, including Lupus Nephritis and Membranous Nephropathy, with clinical trials in progress [1][5]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with slight adjustments to net loss forecasts and a significant increase in net profit forecast for 2026 [5][6].