宏观经济月报（2024年4月）：海外经济温和扩张，中国经济开局良好

Economic Performance - In March, industrial enterprise profit growth fell sharply by 13.7 percentage points to -3.5%, with a three-year compound growth rate declining by 0.1 percentage points to -3.8%[1] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate decreased by 5.9 percentage points to 4.3% compared to January-February[1] - Actual GDP growth is expected to rise to 6.5% in Q2, supported by a low base and policy measures[2] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment, particularly in real estate, remains a key factor influencing economic momentum[2] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to maintain high growth due to large-scale equipment upgrades and external demand support[2] - Consumer spending is expected to continue a moderate recovery, with year-on-year growth likely to increase due to a lower base effect[2] Financial Conditions - New social financing in March was 4.87 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 514.2 billion yuan year-on-year, with the stock growth rate declining by 0.3 percentage points to 8.7%[3] - Government bond financing in March was 464.2 billion yuan, down by 137.3 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating slower financing progress compared to the past five years[3] - M2 money supply growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 8.3%, reflecting a slowdown in corporate deposits[15] Fiscal Policy - In Q1, tax revenue growth declined by 2.4%, while non-tax revenue growth improved, indicating pressure on overall income growth[5] - Expenditure growth turned negative in March, dropping by 9.6 percentage points to -2.9% compared to January-February, with declines across major spending areas[5] - The fiscal revenue and expenditure gap is expected to marginally expand in Q2, despite anticipated improvements in growth rates[6]