THDB(600867) 交银国际证券·2024-05-14 12:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tonghua Dongbao (600867 CH) is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 14.00, indicating a potential upside of 37.6% from the current closing price of RMB 10.18 [2][8]. Core Insights - The results of the insulin procurement are favorable for the company's third-generation product market share, with expected revenue growth in the second half of the year [1]. - The company has adjusted its delivery schedule in Q1 2024 to mitigate the impact of the new procurement cycle, leading to a projected revenue increase in the latter half of the year [1]. - The company is making steady progress in international expansion and research and development, with plans for clinical studies and product approvals in Europe [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly adjusted: 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 33.83 billion, 2025E at RMB 38.76 billion, and 2026E at RMB 42.78 billion, reflecting changes of -2%, +2%, and -0.3% respectively [2][6]. - Net profit projections for the same period are adjusted to RMB 12.71 billion for 2024E, RMB 14.69 billion for 2025E, and RMB 16.43 billion for 2026E, with changes of -2%, +3%, and +1% respectively [2][6]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a performance trend with a 52-week high of RMB 12.39 and a low of RMB 8.78, with a market capitalization of approximately RMB 20.14 billion [4][9]. - Year-to-date performance has seen a decline of 6% [4]. Product and Market Strategy - The company successfully secured A1 class bids for its insulin products, which will facilitate faster hospital access and sales growth [1]. - The anticipated sales volume for the second half of 2024 includes a projected 20% increase in the sales of glargine and an 80% increase for the Aspart 30 product [1]. Research and Development - The company is advancing its research pipeline, with IND approval for dual-target GLP1/GIP weight loss indications and ongoing clinical trials for gout treatments [1].