【德勤】2024年美国零售业展望报告：在所有正确的地方寻找忠诚度

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it highlights key opportunities and challenges for the retail sector in 2024 [1][4] Core Viewpoints - The retail industry faces an uncertain economic outlook in 2024, with inflation and consumer behavior being key factors influencing spending patterns [3][4] - Retailers must focus on building trust to drive profitable loyalty, as consumers prioritize price and value over brand loyalty [4][9] - Three key opportunities are identified for retailers to rekindle loyalty: leveraging loyalty programs, enhancing omni-experience through in-store investments, and driving individual engagement with trustworthy AI [12][16][24] Key Opportunities and Trends Opportunity No 1: Lean into Loyalty Programs - Nearly two-thirds of US consumers belong to 1-5 loyalty programs, but most use 50% or less of their memberships, indicating a need for more engaging programs [13] - Customers in loyalty programs report 61% higher trust in the brand compared to non-members, and increasing trust with existing members could boost annual spending by 30% [13] - Retailers like Dillard's and Ulta Beauty have successfully driven loyalty through private-label brands, personalized service, and revamped loyalty programs [13] - Tiered loyalty programs, co-branding benefits, and data monetization are key strategies for 2024 [13] Opportunity No 2: Enhance Omni-Experience through In-Store Investments - Despite digital advancements, inconsistent omni-experiences can erode trust, with 75% of customers saying they are more loyal to stores with consistent service and experiences [17][18] - Enhancing the in-store experience is a top growth opportunity for 2024, with retailers facing challenges like labor costs, shrink, and high customer expectations [19] - Retailers like Target have seen sales increase by 2-4% after store renovations, and innovative tech can further improve efficiency and consistency [21] Opportunity No 3: Drive Individual Engagement at Scale with Trustworthy AI - Half of retail executives prioritize AI-driven personalized product recommendations, but only 50% are confident in their ability to use AI effectively [24] - Consumers are wary of AI, with 80% having little to no trust in retailers' ability to use AI responsibly, highlighting the need for transparency and reliability [24] - Retailers must focus on building trust in AI by emphasizing humanity, transparency, capability, and reliability in their AI tools [24] Economic and Consumer Trends - The US economy avoided a recession despite inflation, with consumer spending supported by rising wages and pandemic-era savings, though savings depletion will weigh on spending in 2024-2025 [5] - Durable goods spending increased by 43% since Q4 2019, compared to a 24% rise in services spending, but this trend is expected to slow over the next five years [5] - Discount retailers, mass merchants, and club stores are outperforming specialty formats, with 50% of retail executives expecting consumers to prioritize price over loyalty in 2024 [9] Financial Performance of Outperformers - Outperforming retailers had a median ROA of 16.2% and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.8x, compared to underperformers with a ROA of 3.8% and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 4.5x [29] - Outperformers are expected to be 2.6 times more profitable than their peers over the next two years, with 65% of executives from outperformers expecting revenue growth of 5% or more in 2024 [12][29]