医药行业深度研究：原料药板块Q1业绩环比改善明显，Q2有望确认行业拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly the raw material drug sector, indicating a potential industry turning point in Q2 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights - The raw material drug sector showed significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q1 2024, with expectations for demand recovery in Q2 2024 due to the expiration of key product patents and the end of inventory destocking phases in overseas markets [3][15]. - The sector's revenue for Q1 2024 was 296.88 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.56%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.59% [8][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was 37.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.52% [10][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Performance - In 2023, the raw material drug sector achieved total revenue of 1,097.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33%. The quarterly breakdown shows revenues of 298.55 billion yuan in Q1, 283.62 billion yuan in Q2, 258.58 billion yuan in Q3, and 256.83 billion yuan in Q4 [8][14]. - The sector's net profit for 2023 was 85.64 billion yuan, down 40.08% year-on-year, with significant quarterly losses in Q4 [9][12]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for the raw material drug sector in 2023 was 36.42%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.82%, down 4.83 percentage points [16][18]. - In Q1 2024, the gross margin was 36.38%, a year-on-year decline of 0.82 percentage points but an increase of 1.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net margin improved to 12.78%, up 0.73 percentage points year-on-year and 18.32 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [16][18]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the raw material drug sector is currently facing increased competition and declining product prices, leading to pressure on performance. However, the valuation of the sector is at historical lows, with a PE ratio of 25.40 as of Q1 2024, which is at the 8% historical percentile [33][35]. - The top 10 companies in the sector contributed 73.01% of total revenue in Q1 2024, with significant contributions from companies like Xinhecheng and Puluo Pharmaceutical [22][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance certainty in the formulation sector, such as Aorite and Aoxiang Pharmaceutical, as well as those with high new product business ratios or aggressive capacity expansions [3][15].