月度市场策略：乘势而上

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 12.4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 12.1% since April, driven by improved market sentiment and foreign capital inflow [28][29]. - The report suggests that high-dividend stocks may face a period of adjustment, as their recent performance has lagged behind growth stocks, indicating potential opportunities for selective investment [30]. Investment Opportunities - The potential reduction of dividend tax for stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to enhance the attractiveness of high-dividend stocks, particularly benefiting non-H shares, which currently face a 28% dividend tax rate [6]. - The new "National Nine Articles" emphasizes the importance of cash dividends and encourages companies to improve their dividend yields, which may lead to increased interest in state-owned high-dividend stocks [7]. Stock Selection Criteria - The report outlines specific criteria for selecting high-quality dividend stocks, including being part of the Hang Seng Composite Index, having a projected dividend yield greater than 6%, and a positive expected free cash flow ratio [9]. - A list of 16 high-quality dividend stocks has been identified, characterized by strong fundamentals, high profitability, and reasonable valuations, which are expected to enhance portfolio stability [10][29]. Focused Stock Portfolio - The report updates the focused stock portfolio, which has seen a 9% increase but has underperformed compared to the MSCI China Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index. The portfolio includes stocks like Pinduoduo and Tabo, reflecting a strategy to increase exposure to new economy stocks [12][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with robust fundamentals and growth potential, particularly in the context of the current market environment [13][30]. Market Trends - The report notes that sectors such as insurance, real estate, and diversified finance have shown significant recovery, while previously high-performing sectors like materials and energy have lagged [29][30]. - The report anticipates that if global capital continues to flow into the Hong Kong market, it could further boost market sentiment and liquidity, leading to a more stable upward trend in stock prices [29].