2024-05-16 08:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO Inc. has been upgraded to "Buy" [2] Core Views - The launch of the L60 model under the sub-brand "Ledo" is expected to drive NIO's sales into a new growth phase, with a pre-sale price of 219,900 RMB, which is considered attractive [1][2] - The L60 is positioned as a family-oriented smart electric SUV, with dimensions larger than the Tesla Model Y, and is equipped with 45 active and intelligent safety features [1] - The L60 offers competitive energy consumption at 12.1 kWh/100km and will have three battery options with ranges of 555 km, 730+ km, and 1000+ km [1] - The unique charging experience of the L60, including support for battery swapping and a high-voltage system, is highlighted as a key differentiator in the under 200,000 RMB market [1] - Monthly sales for the L60 are projected to stabilize between 9,000 to 10,000 units, which will be crucial for NIO's sales growth [1] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 13% and 21% respectively, reflecting higher expected sales for the Ledo brand [2] - Total sales for NIO are projected to grow by 57.6% and 22.0% in 2025 and 2026, reaching 300,000 and 370,000 units respectively [2] - The anticipated monthly delivery volume for NIO and Ledo combined is expected to stabilize at 25,000 to 30,000 units next year, aiding in valuation recovery [2] Market Data - The current closing price for NIO is HKD 42.20, with a target price raised to HKD 59.88, indicating a potential upside of 41.9% [2][4] - NIO's market capitalization is approximately HKD 161.66 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 2.68 million shares [4]