Jinko Solar(SH:688223)2024-05-16 13:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 118.68 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 43.55%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.44 billion yuan, up 153.20% year-on-year [3][6]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 23.08 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.30% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.18 billion yuan, down 29.09% year-on-year, indicating that the performance met expectations [3][6]. - The company experienced a significant increase in shipment volume, with a total shipment of 21.91 GW in Q1 2024, representing a 51.19% year-on-year growth [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 96.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%, followed by 116.81 billion yuan in 2025 and 136.28 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 21.1% and 16.7% respectively [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.12 billion yuan in 2024, down 58.1% year-on-year, followed by 4.73 billion yuan in 2025 and 6.69 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 51.9% and 41.4% respectively [6][8]. - The report indicates a decrease in gross margin from 14.0% in 2023 to an estimated 8.0% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 12.0% by 2026 [6][8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company leads the industry in N-type technology, with N-type component shipments reaching 48.41 GW in 2023, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 352% [6]. - The company has established a vertically integrated production capacity across key segments, achieving 85 GW in wafers, 90 GW in cells, and 110 GW in modules by the end of 2023, with an integration rate exceeding 85% [6]. Valuation and Comparables - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 25 for 2024, while the average industry valuation for comparable companies is estimated at 30 times PE [6]. - Given the company's leading position in the photovoltaic module market and the expected recovery of the industry, the report maintains a target valuation based on the industry average for 2024 [6].