ACEG(600502) 申万宏源·2024-05-17 01:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target market capitalization of approximately 11.2 billion yuan, representing a 29% upside potential [51][24] Core Views - The company, as a leading construction enterprise in Anhui Province, benefits from regional development红利 and is expected to see improved cash flow as PPP projects enter the operational phase [51][24] - The company's investment and operation segment is maturing, which is expected to extend the company's operational duration and improve cash flow [6][24] - Emerging businesses, such as prefabricated construction and testing services, are expected to become new growth drivers, contributing significantly to the company's profit [10][24] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was 91.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.553 billion yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year [63][64] - The company's revenue CAGR for 2021-2023 was 17.0%, and its net profit CAGR was 23.9% [63] - The company's gross profit margin in 2023 was 12.44%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year [73] Business Segments - The company's infrastructure construction and investment business generated revenue of 39.6 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8.14% [64] - The company's building construction business achieved revenue of 32 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 27.24% [64] - Emerging businesses, including prefabricated construction and testing services, accounted for 13.6% of the company's revenue and 33.4% of its gross profit in 2023 [10] Regional Development and Opportunities - Anhui Province, as a key part of the Yangtze River Delta integration strategy, offers significant growth potential for the company [47][48] - The company's engineering revenue in Anhui Province in 2023 was approximately 60.8 billion yuan, accounting for 1.33% of the province's fixed asset investment completion [4] - The company's building construction revenue in Anhui Province accounted for 5.83% of the province's real estate development investment completion in 2023 [4] Investment and Operation Segment - The company has 56 PPP projects in hand, with 40 already in the operational phase, and a total investment of 65.9 billion yuan, of which 51.3 billion yuan has been completed [6] - The company has won 6特许经营 projects since 2022, including 4 highway projects, which are expected to extend the company's operational duration [6][9] Emerging Businesses - The company's prefabricated construction business signed new contracts worth 2.078 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [12] - The company's testing business signed new contracts worth 830 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [12] Profit Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.4% from 2024 to 2026, with revenues of 100.6 billion yuan, 110.4 billion yuan, and 119.5 billion yuan respectively [18][20] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.2% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 1.728 billion yuan, 1.905 billion yuan, and 2.081 billion yuan respectively [27]