大陆消费月报：4月社零不及预期，关注地产政策催化

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting the need to monitor the impact of real estate policies on consumer demand [4][42]. Core Insights - April's retail sales data fell short of expectations, with total retail sales reaching approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, down from 3.1% in the previous month [7][42]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of daily consumption, with travel continuing to support strong performance in dining and entertainment sectors [4][42]. - The report suggests that the recent favorable real estate policies may lead to marginal improvements in durable goods consumption, particularly in home appliances and furniture [9][42]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - Social retail sales were below expectations, with travel data remaining high and cross-border travel continuing to recover [4]. - The consumer price index (CPI) saw a slight increase, primarily supported by rising oil prices [4][25]. Consumer Sector Overview - The local consumption market showed mixed results, with the film market underperforming while live performances thrived [4][21]. - The white liquor industry is currently in a low season, with Moutai prices weakening [22]. - Online retail sales experienced a decline of 1.9% year-on-year, although the drop was less severe than in the previous month [7]. Retail Performance - Retail sales for enterprises above designated size reached 1.3 trillion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [9]. - Durable goods consumption remains weak, but there is some strength in home appliance and furniture sales driven by replacement demand [9]. Travel and Entertainment - Travel data remains robust, with significant increases in passenger numbers during the May Day holiday, indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel [17][19]. - The film box office for April was 2.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, while live performance revenues increased significantly during the same period [21]. Price Trends - The CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year in April, with core CPI increasing by 0.7% [25]. - The report notes that food prices, particularly pork, are beginning to recover, while transportation costs are rising due to higher oil prices [27][28]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests monitoring leading domestic cosmetic brands, such as Pechoin and Huaxi Biological, for potential strong sales performance during the upcoming promotional events [42].