Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 201.76 CNY (217.80 HKD) based on a 16x PE for 2024 [5][8]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 9.96 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, while the net profit was 1.45 billion CNY, a decrease of 13.0%. However, the adjusted net profit rose to 2.22 billion CNY, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year growth, indicating high-quality earnings growth [1]. - The company's express delivery volume reached 7.17 billion pieces in Q1 2024, marking a 13.9% year-on-year increase, with a market share of 19.3%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year due to a strategic adjustment in the volume structure to reduce low-priced loss-making items [2]. - The company implemented strict cost control, resulting in a decrease in per-piece sorting and transportation costs by 0.06 CNY to 0.94 CNY, a decline of 5.3%. The per-piece gross profit increased by 0.02 CNY to 0.42 CNY, with a gross margin of 31.0%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The adjusted net profit per piece was 0.31 CNY, a 1.7% year-on-year increase, indicating a steady improvement in profitability. The company expects the industry growth rate for 2024 to be between 15% and 20%, with its package volume projected to be between 34.73 billion and 35.64 billion pieces, reflecting a growth rate of 15% to 18% [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 43.96 billion CNY, 49.37 billion CNY, and 54.54 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 14.43%, 12.29%, and 10.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10.25 billion CNY, 11.83 billion CNY, and 13.54 billion CNY for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.12%, 15.42%, and 14.50% [5][6].
中通快递-W：Q1调整后净利润同增15.8%，盈利实现高质量增长