房地产行业：2024年第一季度中国甲级办公楼市场报告

Market Overview and Key Data - The total stock of Grade A office space in 20 key cities across China is 86.23 million square meters [4] - The projected net absorption for 2024 is 3.76 million square meters [4] - Over the next three years, new supply is expected to reach 19.64 million square meters [4] - The current vacancy rate stands at 24.9% [4] - The net effective rent is 153 RMB per square meter per month [4] Office Market Development - The office market in China shows significant disparities between cities, with leading cities already on par with global standards while others remain in early development stages [8] - Mature cities are expected to enter a new cycle of construction, driving continuous evolution in urban landscapes [8] Demand and Market Performance - Most cities are expected to achieve year-on-year growth in net absorption in 2024, although demand performance across all levels and regions is weaker than the five-year average [17] - The national average net absorption over the past five years (2018-2022) serves as a benchmark for comparison [17] Rental Trends and Vacancy Rates - Rental prices continued to decline in Q1 2024, with cities clustering more closely around the trend line, indicating sustained market pressure [15] - The vacancy rate range narrowed in key city clusters such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Greater Bay Area, Chengdu-Chongqing, and the Yangtze River Midstream, suggesting reduced market disparities [15] Future Supply and Demand Rankings - Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are projected to lead in new supply over the next three years, with 3.42 million, 3.35 million, and 1.98 million square meters respectively [29] - Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou are also expected to top the list in total net absorption, with 2.79 million, 2.52 million, and 1.43 million square meters respectively [29] Industry-Specific Insights - The financial and technology sectors dominate leasing transactions in first-tier cities, reflecting their strong demand for office space [20] - The life sciences sector is gaining momentum, with a focus on innovative high-tech investments, as evidenced by the growing share of innovative drugs in the pharmaceutical market [26]