房地产行业重大事件点评：为什么是3000亿？

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1][11]. Core Insights - The government has proposed specific measures to purchase existing residential properties and activate existing land, establishing a 300 billion yuan loan for affordable housing [1]. - The report highlights that the government's acquisition of existing properties is expected to alleviate inventory pressure and improve liquidity for real estate companies [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the current policies will stimulate demand and mitigate risks on the supply side, leading to a balanced market in the near future [1][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The government aims to purchase existing residential properties to convert them into affordable housing, with a focus on properties that are completed but unsold [1]. - A 300 billion yuan loan has been established by the central bank to support this initiative, with a 1.75% interest rate and a one-year term [1][6]. Market Inventory - As of April 2024, the total inventory of residential properties in China is approximately 2 billion square meters, with a significant portion being unsold completed properties [3][6]. - The report estimates that the current unsold inventory of completed residential properties is about 391 million square meters, with a decommissioning cycle of 23.8 months [1][6]. Financial Implications - The report calculates that to fully address the inventory issue, approximately 14.89 trillion yuan would be needed to purchase all existing properties [6]. - It suggests that if the decommissioning cycle can be reduced to 18 months, the required funds would be around 6 trillion yuan [6]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: local state-owned enterprises benefiting from government purchases, real estate companies with solid fundamentals and no liquidity risks, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from a recovery in second-hand housing transactions [1][6].