付鹏--2024年年终回顾和 2025年展望

Global Economic Trends - The world has fundamentally changed since 2016, with significant shifts in economic and political frameworks[2] - The global economy is experiencing a rightward shift, leading to increased political and economic tensions[14] - The end of the globalization era began in 2016, with a move towards deglobalization and right-wing policies[12] Japan's Economic Transformation - Japan's economy has undergone significant changes, with its stock market reaching a 35-year high[4] - Japan's economic model focuses on wealth redistribution rather than growth, with younger generations benefiting from demographic shifts[18] - Japan's corporate sector, including companies like Mitsui and Mitsubishi, is undergoing a redistribution of wealth[17] China's Economic Challenges - China's economy faces a significant demand shortfall, with negative effective demand for the first time in 22 years[26] - The middle class in China is experiencing a decline, leading to reduced consumption and economic contraction[27] - China's economic policies are shifting towards reducing leverage rather than increasing it, as seen in the reduction of mortgage rates[35] Investment and Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market accurately reflects economic conditions, with structural changes rather than overall growth[29] - The semiconductor sector is the only expanding industry in China, while other sectors like real estate and consumer goods are declining[41] - China's investment strategy focuses on state-driven industries, with a cycle of protection and market competition leading to rapid industry shifts[45] Policy and Economic Cycles - China's economic policies are influenced by demographic changes, with a focus on indirect taxation to support government investments[33] - The current economic cycle in China is marked by supply overcapacity and insufficient demand, requiring internal redistribution of wealth[37] - The global economic environment is shifting, with industries returning to domestic markets and trade relationships being reshaped[49]