Tai Ping Yang·2024-05-22 01:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank (601658) with a target price based on the last closing price of 5.06 [1]. Core Insights - Postal Savings Bank demonstrated strong revenue resilience with a 2023 revenue of 342.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, and a net profit of 86.27 billion yuan, up 1.23% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, the bank reported revenue of 89.43 billion yuan, a 1.44% increase, but a slight decline in net profit by 1.35% [2][1]. - The bank's weighted ROE for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 10.85% and 12.36%, respectively, showing a decrease of 1.04 percentage points and 2.01 percentage points year-on-year [2][1]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio was stable at 0.84% as of Q1 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 326.87%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [2][1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Postal Savings Bank achieved total assets of 15.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.80%. Customer loans reached 8.15 trillion yuan, up 13.02%, and customer deposits were 13.96 trillion yuan, increasing by 9.76% [2][1]. - For Q1 2024, total assets rose to 16.33 trillion yuan, with customer loans at 8.52 trillion yuan and deposits at 14.63 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.85%, 4.58%, and 4.82%, respectively [2][1]. Revenue and Profitability - The bank's net interest margin was reported at 1.92% as of the report period, with a slight decrease of 9 basis points from the end of 2023. The average yield on customer loans was 4.13%, while the interest rate on customer deposits was 1.53% [2][1]. - The bank's revenue growth in Q1 2024 was primarily driven by net interest income of 71.57 billion yuan, which increased by 3.13% year-on-year [2][1]. Future Projections - The report forecasts that Postal Savings Bank's revenue will reach 348.67 billion yuan in 2024, 366.36 billion yuan in 2025, and 390.51 billion yuan in 2026. The projected net profits are 87.58 billion yuan, 91.09 billion yuan, and 96.19 billion yuan for the respective years [2][1]. - The book value per share (BVPS) is expected to be 10.61 yuan, 11.67 yuan, and 12.76 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.48, 0.43, and 0.40 [2][1].