CHINA RAILWAY(00390) 国泰君安证券·2024-05-22 03:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway Group (00390 HK) with a target price of HKD 7.70, corresponding to 6.0x, 5.2x, and 4.7x EV/EBITDA for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the increase in copper and molybdenum prices, which have risen by 30% and 23% respectively since the beginning of the year, is expected to significantly enhance the operational performance of the company's resource utilization business [1]. - In 2023, the company's resource utilization business generated revenue of RMB 8.37 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with new contract amounts reaching RMB 33.44 billion, up 41.7% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 59.7%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points [1]. - The real estate sales of China Railway Group in 2023 amounted to RMB 69.7 billion, ranking 21st nationally, with a sales area of 4.46 million square meters, ranking 20th [1]. - The report notes that the gross margin for the real estate development business was 14.5% in 2023, significantly down from 29.2% in 2019, indicating substantial recovery potential as market conditions improve [1]. Summary by Sections Resource Utilization Business - The company achieved a copper production of 283,800 tons and molybdenum production of 15,200 tons in 2023, leading the domestic market [1]. - The operational performance is expected to benefit from rising commodity prices [2]. Real Estate Development - The company’s land acquisition amounted to RMB 13.6 billion, ranking 18th, with an area of 2.12 million square meters, ranking 20th [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the real estate development business due to supportive policies and cost reductions from land purchases during the market downturn [2].