2024-05-22 05:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Li Auto [3][6][18] Core Views - Li Auto's Q1 2024 revenue was Rmb25.63 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38.6%. Vehicle sales revenue was Rmb24.25 billion, up 32.3% year-on-year and down 39.9% quarter-on-quarter. Vehicle deliveries reached 80,400 units, exceeding the company's revised guidance [17][18] - The company expects Q2 2024 vehicle deliveries to be between 105,000 and 110,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.3% to 27.1%, with total revenue projected at Rmb29.9 billion to Rmb31.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% to 9.4% [17][18] - Li Auto has postponed the release of its pure electric SUV model from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, focusing on enhancing the sales of its range-extended vehicles [17][18] Financial Summary - For Q1 2024, Li Auto's non-GAAP net profit was Rmb1.3 billion, down 9.7% year-on-year and down 72.2% quarter-on-quarter. The operating loss was Rmb580 million, with an operating margin of -2.3% [17][18] - The forecast for 2024-2026 EPS is Rmb6.04, Rmb8.03, and Rmb11.60, with a target price adjustment to HK$149.80, reflecting a 27% decrease from the previous target price [17][18] - The company reported cash reserves of Rmb98.89 billion at the end of Q1 2024, with operating cash flow of Rmb3.3 billion and free cash flow of -Rmb5.1 billion [17][18] Market Position - The new model Li L6 has received over 20,000 orders within 12 days of its launch, indicating strong market demand. The L6 is positioned competitively in the Rmb200,000-300,000 hybrid SUV market, with limited direct competition [17][18]