Guolian Securities·2024-05-22 08:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near future [7]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with a total of 80,400 units delivered in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.9%. Total revenue for the same period reached 256 billion yuan, up 36.4% year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 36.7% to 5.9 billion yuan [1][2]. - Despite short-term sales pressures, the company is expected to maintain revenue growth, particularly with the upcoming launch of the Li L6 model, which has already seen high order volumes during the May Day holiday [2]. - The company is expanding its supercharging network, with 357 new supercharging stations and 1,544 charging piles established in Q1 2024, aiming for over 2,000 supercharging stations and more than 10,000 charging piles by the end of 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the gross margin was reported at 20.6%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 2.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to price adjustments and scale reductions [3]. - The company’s R&D and SG&A expenses were 30.49 billion yuan and 29.78 billion yuan respectively, with their expense ratios increasing year-on-year [3]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1,555 billion yuan, 2,317 billion yuan, and 3,142 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 49.1%, and 35.6% [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q2 2024 deliveries to reach between 105,000 and 110,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.3% to 27.1%. Revenue for the same period is expected to be between 299 billion yuan and 314 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 4.2% to 9.4% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 5.09 yuan, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.7% [5].