Guolian Securities·2024-05-22 09:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is to "continue to pay attention" [5]. Core Views - The company reported a first-quarter delivery volume of 80,400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 52.9%, with total revenue of 25.6 billion yuan, up 36.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 590 million yuan, down 36.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - Short-term sales pressure is significant, but revenue is expected to continue to rise with the launch of the Li L6 model, which has already seen record order volumes during the May Day holiday [2]. - The company is expanding its ecosystem with the addition of 357 supercharging stations and aims to have over 2,000 supercharging stations and more than 10,000 charging piles by the end of 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - The first-quarter gross margin was 20.6%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points but a decrease of 2.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to price adjustments and scale reductions [3]. - Research and development expenses were 3.049 billion yuan, and selling, general, and administrative expenses were 2.978 billion yuan, with both expense ratios increasing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 155.5 billion yuan, 231.7 billion yuan, and 314.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.5%, 49.1%, and 35.6% respectively [5][6]. Market Position and Outlook - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 160.6 billion HKD, with a current share price of 80.65 HKD [7]. - The company is expected to achieve quarterly delivery volumes of 105,000 to 110,000 vehicles in the second quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.3% to 27.1% [2]. - The company is enhancing its product matrix and energy types, with a focus on improving its intelligent features, which is anticipated to drive sales growth [5].