电子行业深度研究：OLED供需反转，行业或迎来拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the OLED industry [7]. Core Insights - The OLED panel supply and demand are reversing, indicating a potential profitability turning point for the industry. The decline in OLED panel prices has accelerated the adoption of AMOLED by smartphone manufacturers in 2023, leading to a recovery in panel prices by the end of 2023 and sustained demand [2][10]. Summary by Sections AMOLED Advantages - AMOLED technology is increasingly prominent in the small and medium-sized display sector, showcasing advantages over TFT-LCD in optical performance, electronic performance, integration, and aesthetics. The technology is widely used in smartphones and wearables, with a trend towards flexible displays replacing rigid ones and accelerated LTPO penetration [3][20]. Smartphone Demand - The global smartphone market is expected to recover, with an estimated shipment of 1.2 billion units in 2024, driven by replacement cycles and demand for foldable and AI smartphones. The penetration rate of OLED smartphones is projected to rise from 51% in 2023 to 55% in 2024, reaching 60% by 2028, with a CAGR of 4.74% from 2023 to 2028 [4][46]. Tablet/Notebook Demand - Major brands, including Apple, are entering the OLED market, which is expected to accelerate the penetration of OLED panels in medium-sized displays. Apple's market share in tablets and computers reached 40% and 9% respectively in 2023, indicating significant potential for OLED adoption [5][11]. Supply Dynamics - The AMOLED supply market is primarily dominated by South Korea and mainland China, with South Korea accounting for 70.7% of global smartphone AMOLED panel shipments in 2023. There is a structural supply tightness in LTPO technology, which is expected to persist until 2025 due to slow capacity release [6][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic flexible OLED manufacturers that are likely to benefit from the supply-demand reversal, including BOE Technology Group, TCL Technology, Visionox, and Honghuayuan [7][13].