5.23会员早报：储会议纪要放鹰高盛预测今年不降息华尔街见闻

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a hawkish stance, suggesting that if inflation does not show signs of sustainable movement towards 2%, the current restrictive policy may be maintained for a longer period. Participants are open to further tightening if inflation risks re-emerge [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates this year, citing resilient economic conditions bolstered by government spending and investments in AI infrastructure [1] - The passenger car market in the U.S. saw retail sales of 900,000 units from May 1 to May 19, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a month-on-month increase of 19% [1] - The confirmation of a second human case of avian influenza in the U.S. led to a significant rise in vaccine stocks, with BioNTech up 11.1% and Moderna up 13.7% [1] - Citigroup's research indicates that the likelihood of OPEC+ further reducing production is low, predicting Brent crude oil prices to average $86 per barrel in Q2 2024, dropping to around $70 in the second half of 2024 [2] - The National Association of Realtors reported that the median price of existing homes in the U.S. was $407,600 in April, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive month of price increases [2] - Peru's mining and energy association plans to exceed 3 million tons of copper production in 2024, driven by rising copper prices and potential marginal production increases of 5%-10% [2] - A media survey revealed that 37% of Japanese companies desire a rate hike from the Bank of Japan to address the weakening yen [2] Summary by Sections - Federal Reserve Insights: The Federal Reserve is leaning towards maintaining a restrictive policy longer if inflation does not trend towards the target [1] - Goldman Sachs Forecast: The firm anticipates no interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year due to economic resilience [1] - Passenger Car Market: Retail sales show a decline year-on-year but an increase month-on-month, indicating a return to normalcy post-new energy vehicle boom [1] - Avian Influenza Impact: The second confirmed case in the U.S. has positively affected vaccine stocks [1] - Oil Price Predictions: Citigroup forecasts a decline in oil prices in the latter half of 2024 [2] - Real Estate Trends: Existing home prices continue to rise, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures [2] - Copper Production Plans: Peru aims for significant copper production in 2024, influenced by market conditions [2] - Japanese Economic Sentiment: A notable percentage of Japanese firms support a rate hike to combat currency depreciation [2]