高盛：微软(MSFT)Build大会——首日初步

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) with a 12-month price target of $515.00, representing a 20.0% upside from the current price of $429.04 [1][5][8]. Core Insights - Microsoft is positioned as a leader in the generative AI space, enhancing its Copilot offerings to create customizable experiences for over 1 billion knowledge workers [1]. - The evolution of foundation models allows Microsoft to deliver cost-effective solutions across various platforms, enhancing its competitive edge [1]. - The company is leveraging its hardware capabilities to improve performance and reduce costs associated with generative AI workloads, particularly through its AI-first Copilot+ PCs [1]. - Microsoft is expected to capitalize on long-term trends such as public cloud consumption, SaaS adoption, and digital transformation, with a projected cloud business run-rate nearing $100 billion [2][8]. - The report anticipates a doubling of earnings per share from FY24 to FY28, driven by sustained growth in the Microsoft Cloud segment [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from $211.9 billion in FY23 to $319.2 billion by FY26, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [3][6]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from $102.4 billion in FY23 to $174.1 billion by FY26, reflecting strong operational leverage [3][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from $9.68 in FY23 to $16.65 by FY26, showcasing significant profitability growth [3][6]. - The report highlights a free cash flow yield of 3.0% in FY23, expected to stabilize around 2.6% in the following years [3][6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Microsoft is well-positioned to expand its share of customer IT budgets due to its broad portfolio and strong presence across all layers of the cloud stack [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of its E5 offerings, which currently have low to mid-teens penetration rates [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of Microsoft's productivity suite and cloud services in solidifying its competitive moat and driving ongoing strength in its cloud segment [8].