高盛：英国仲夏的减税

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in expectations regarding the Bank of England's interest rate cuts, now forecasting the first cut in August instead of June [5][7]. Core Insights - Services inflation in the UK was reported at 5.9% year-on-year in April, surpassing both consensus expectations and the Bank of England's May projection of 5.5% [2][5]. - Wage growth remains robust, with private sector regular pay showing a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, slightly below previous projections, but the outlook for wage growth is strong due to upcoming annual settlements [3][4]. - The growth outlook has improved significantly, with real GDP rebounding in Q1 and positive momentum expected to continue into Q2, supported by rising real incomes [4][5]. Summary by Sections Inflation and Wage Growth - The report highlights a broad-based increase in services inflation, with a sequential rise of 0.56% month-on-month in April, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2][5]. - The near-term outlook for wage growth is strong, with expectations of significant gains in the upcoming April pay data [3]. Economic Growth - Following a technical recession in H2, the report notes a rebound in real GDP growth, with a forecast of 0.3% gains for Q2-Q4 and an overall forecast of 0.8% growth for 2024, above the consensus of 0.5% [4][5]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report suggests that the strong April CPI release makes a June rate cut unlikely, with the first expected cut now projected for August, contingent on upcoming inflation and labor market data [5][7]. - The pace of future rate cuts will depend on the persistence of inflation, with a cautious approach recommended due to higher domestic inflation compared to the US and Euro area [7][9]. - The report maintains a forecast of two cuts in 2024, four in 2025, and three in 2026, with various probabilities assigned to different scenarios regarding inflation persistence and labor market conditions [10].