华住集团-S：2024Q1开店快速，业绩符合预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in operational metrics for Q1 2024, with net store openings exceeding expectations. The recovery in leisure travel demand has positively impacted the company's RevPAR, and its proactive focus on B2B business has positioned its corporate travel capabilities above industry standards. The revenue forecasts for 2024E/2025E/2026E are projected at 241/259/279 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 10.0%/7.8%/7.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 43/50/56 billion RMB, with growth rates of 5.6%/15.5%/12.6% [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of May 22, 2024, the closing price is HKD 29.05, with a total market capitalization of HKD 932.62 billion and total shares outstanding of 3.21 billion [5]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.28 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. The revenue breakdown includes domestic self-operated, domestic franchised, overseas self-operated, and overseas franchised revenues of 2.11, 2.04, 0.99, and 0.0021 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 4.6%, 32.9%, 15.6%, and 16.7% [7]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2024 was 1.42 billion RMB, up 37.8%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.9%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [7]. RevPAR and Operational Metrics - The company's domestic RevPAR, ADR, and OCC for Q1 2024 were 216 RMB, 280 RMB, and 77.2%, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.1%, 1.0%, and 1.6 percentage points, respectively. The overseas metrics were 58 EUR, 104 EUR, and 55.8%, with year-on-year growth of 4.5%, 0.2%, and 2.3 percentage points [7]. Store Expansion - In Q1 2024, the company opened 569 new stores domestically, a significant increase from 262 in the same period last year. The total number of stores reached 9,817, with plans to open 1,800 new stores in 2024 [7]. B2B Business Development - The company has actively expanded its corporate travel business, with a 34% year-on-year increase in contracted room nights and a 57% growth in active corporate users, reaching 2,700 [7].