社会服务行业专题研究：从招聘需求回暖看顺周期预期改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the leading human resources service company, Beijing Human Resources [5]. Core Insights - The human resources service sector is currently attractive due to low valuations after a period of adjustment from high expectations and valuations [1][9]. - Recruitment demand is showing a year-on-year recovery trend, with significant increases in the number of new recruitment companies and job postings compared to previous years [2][13]. - The overseas human resources service market is expected to grow significantly as Chinese companies continue to expand internationally, with a projected increase in overseas employees [3][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Human Resources Services: Recruitment Demand Recovery - The sector's stock prices have adjusted to reflect lower valuations after high expectations for macroeconomic recovery [1][9]. - As of May 19, 2024, the number of new recruitment companies reached 44,584, representing 171% of the levels seen in 2023 [2][13]. - Average annual salary for recruitment stands at 148,200 RMB, which is 99% of the level in 2023 [2][13]. 2. Company Comparison: Resilience of Two State-Owned Enterprises - Beijing Human Resources and Foreign Service Holdings derive stable revenue from outsourcing and traditional payroll services, showing strong operational resilience [4][22]. - The revenue contribution from outsourcing for Beijing Human Resources and Foreign Service Holdings is 83% and 77%, respectively, with significant growth rates [22][25]. - Beijing Human Resources has a competitive advantage with major clients like Huawei, which contributes significantly to its overseas business growth potential [4][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on High-Dividend Leaders - Beijing Human Resources is highlighted for its strong management attributes in outsourcing, making it more resilient and stable in performance [5][35]. - The company is committed to returning at least 50% of its distributable profits to shareholders, primarily through cash dividends [5][35].