中国双碳新能源行业资本市场趋势2023年度报告

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth potential in the dual-carbon new energy sector, particularly in the fields of power batteries, energy storage, hydrogen energy, and photovoltaics, despite a general investment slowdown in 2023 [4][8]. Core Insights - The dual-carbon new energy sector has made significant progress since the announcement of the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" policy, with a 48.4% reduction in carbon emission intensity from 2005 levels by 2020, exceeding international commitments [4]. - In 2023, China's renewable energy installed capacity surpassed thermal power for the first time, reaching 1.322 billion kilowatts in the first half of the year, and is projected to exceed 1.45 billion kilowatts by year-end, accounting for over 50% of total power generation capacity [4]. - The investment landscape is shifting towards green transformation and high-tech industries, with manufacturing and midstream equipment manufacturing investments growing by 6.4% and 15.3% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - The competitive landscape is expected to undergo a cleansing phase in 2024, leading to clearer industry trends and investment logic [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance and Investment Review - The dual-carbon new energy sector has shown resilience in investment activity, particularly in power batteries, hydrogen energy, and energy storage, despite an overall decline in investment in 2023 [8]. - Investment events in the dual-carbon sector totaled 9,893, with financing amounting to approximately 776.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 27% year-on-year [6]. Power Batteries - In 2023, the demand for power batteries reached 690 GWh, while supply was 1,800 GWh, indicating a structural oversupply that is expected to continue into 2024 [11]. - Investment opportunities are emerging in sodium-ion batteries, which are seen as a cost-effective and safe alternative to lithium batteries [11]. - The transition from graphite to silicon-carbon anodes is anticipated, with a significant increase in nickel content in batteries expected by 2025 [11]. Energy Storage - The energy storage sector saw rapid development in 2023, with over 30 GW of new installations, a 210% increase from 2022 [13]. - Lithium batteries remain dominant, but investment interest is shifting towards liquid flow batteries due to their long-term economic viability [13]. Hydrogen Energy - Investment in hydrogen energy is focused on hydrogen production and fuel cells, with significant interest in alkaline membrane materials and fuel cell systems [15]. - The integration of hydrogen energy with photovoltaics and energy storage is gaining traction, with green hydrogen production scaling up [15]. Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a price decline across the supply chain, leading to increased investment attractiveness in solar power plants [17]. - N-type solar cells are rapidly replacing P-type cells, with significant capital support for core components in the supply chain [17].