高盛：然气接下来会怎样ln Pass时间线不确定性带来4美元亨利枢纽价格延迟的风险

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on Henry Hub prices, forecasting $4/mmBtu for Summer 2025, although recent developments have introduced uncertainty regarding this timeline [4][3]. Core Insights - European gas prices, particularly TTF, have experienced significant volatility, with prices rising above 35 EUR/MWh due to supply concerns, particularly from Russia and Norway [2][6]. - The construction timeline for the Golden Pass LNG export facility has been delayed by six months to the second half of 2025 due to labor issues and the bankruptcy of the lead contractor, impacting the expected increase in US LNG export demand [3][4]. - Despite concerns about European gas supply tightening, the report suggests that these fears may be overstated, as Russian gas flows to Austria have been minimal and current storage levels are high [6][7]. Summary by Sections European Gas Market - TTF prices rallied due to supply concerns, with a notable correlation to carbon emission prices, although TTF led the price increase this past week [2][6]. - Weak gas demand in Europe has resulted in a significant drop in expected consumption, with May demand falling 27 mcm/d below previous estimates [7]. US LNG Export Outlook - The report anticipates a sharp increase in US LNG export demand in 2025, necessitating a rise in US gas drilling to ensure adequate supply for the winter of 2025/26 [4][3]. - The marginal cost of production for non-core Haynesville wells is estimated at $3.75-$4, which is critical for incentivizing drilling [4]. Golden Pass LNG Facility - The expected start-up of the Golden Pass LNG facility has been pushed back to the second half of 2025 due to labor issues and contractor bankruptcy, which raises uncertainty about future supply [3][4]. - The delay in the Golden Pass project could impact the bullish outlook for Henry Hub prices, particularly for early summer [4].